NFL Stats

The numbers behind the picks — refreshed every Monday during the season.

🎯 Quarterback Stats

The full picture — not just yards. Volume, scoring, mistakes and efficiency together tell you which contenders can actually win in February. Click a column header to sort.

Quarterback	Pass yards ↕	TDs ↕	INTs ↕	Rating ↕	Story

Most efficient

Lamar Jackson — 119.6 rating (No. 1) and Brock Purdy — 119.3 (No. 2). Purdy pairs it with a league-best 13 passing TDs, which is why San Francisco's price keeps shortening. Jackson did it while battling an ankle issue — Baltimore held him out in Week 5 (see injuries).

Cleanest football

Jared Goff — 0 interceptions in 5 games, the only QB with 7+ TDs and no pick. The next-cleanest scorer is Geno Smith (6 TDs, no INT). In January, one bad throw ends a season; Goff isn't giving games away.

Most dangerous dual threat

Josh Allen — 15 total TDs. 1,249 passing yards + 239 rushing yards, including 121 rushing yards in the OT win over the Rams, and 7 rushing TDs tied for the league lead. Buffalo goes as far as Allen carries them.

🔄 Turnovers — The Hidden Playoff Stat

Championships turn on the ball. Teams that take it away — and don't give it away — win in January. Here's who is winning that battle through Week 5.

Takeaways per game — Leaders

1. Las Vegas Raiders · AFC West · 3–2

2.2 / game

T-2. Green Bay Packers · NFC North

1.8

T-2. Minnesota Vikings · 5–0

1.8

T-2. Seattle Seahawks · defending champs

1.8

Minnesota is the complete package: No. 1 in points allowed (12.8/game), No. 3 in yards allowed and top-3 in takeaways. That's a defence that travels in the playoffs.

Giveaways — Who's hurting themselves?

Chicago Bears — Week 5 warning
5 turnovers in a 31–7 loss to Green Bay with Caleb Williams out

Seattle — Week 5
Sam Darnold intercepted twice, sacked 5 times vs. San Francisco

Los Angeles Rams
Matthew Stafford — 2 INTs in the Week 4 win at Philadelphia

The flip side: Detroit (Goff, 0 INT) is protecting the ball best among high-volume passing teams — a big reason the Lions score a league-high 32.8 points per game without wasting drives.

Why it matters for the prediction: Of the top-6 favourites, Minnesota-type ball-hawking isn't San Francisco's game — the 49ers win on balance (No. 2 offence, No. 5 defence in the Week 6 power rankings). Kansas City's quiet edge is the opposite: they rarely beat themselves, and they're 4–0 without needing takeaway luck.

📏 Most Yards

Season leaders through Week 5 games (Oct. 11, 2026).

Passing yards

Jared Goff DET

1,485

Jordan Love GB

1,408

C.J. Stroud HOU

1,402

Joe Burrow CIN

1,361

Josh Allen BUF

1,249

Rushing yards

Bijan Robinson ATL

580

Kenneth Walker III SEA

537

Jahmyr Gibbs DET

504

Gibbs exploded for 151 rushing yards + 56 receiving in Detroit's 45–21 win at Arizona.

Receiving yards

Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA

583

Chris Olave NO

537

CeeDee Lamb DAL

507

Receptions leader: Trey McBride ARI TE

🏈 Most Touchdowns

Scoring leaders through Week 5.

Passing TDs

Brock Purdy SF

Jared Goff DET

Kirk Cousins LV

Rushing TDs

Jahmyr Gibbs DET

Josh Allen BUF · QB

Derrick Henry BAL

Receiving TDs

Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA

Christian Watson GB

Amon-Ra St. Brown DET

Detroit owns the scoreboard: Lions lead the NFL at 32.8 points per game, with Goff, Gibbs and St. Brown all on these lists — yet Detroit is only +2160 on our model for the Super Bowl after a 3–2 start. That's the biggest stats-vs-odds gap on the board.

📊 Team Stats Snapshot

What separates the contenders — through Week 5.

Offence

Points / game
DET 32.8 · BUF 31.8 · SF 30.8

Total yards / game
LAR 417.0 · KC 412.0 · CAR 405.8

Rushing yards / game
CHI 173.2 · ATL 166.8 · BAL 164.4

Passing yards / game
CAR 301.2 · LAR 290.2 · DET 279.6

Defence

Fewest points allowed
MIN 12.8 · JAX 14.0 · SF 18.6

Fewest yards allowed
LAR 247.5 · SEA 251.2 · MIN 259.8

Fewest rushing yards allowed
JAX 63.8 · TB 72.8 · HOU 78.4

Sacks / game
DET 4.0 · HOU 3.6 · CIN / MIN / NYJ 3.4

— days
until kickoff at SoFi Stadium

Super Bowl LXI — Sunday, Feb. 14, 2027. Seattle are the defending champions (+955 on our model, 3–2). Kansas City is chasing another title at 4–0.

AFC & NFC Standings

Through Week 5 (updated Oct 14, 2026)

AFC

Team	W	L	T	PF	PA	DIFF
AFC East
Buffalo Bills	4	1	0	164	141	+23
New England Patriots	3	2	0	110	94	+16
New York Jets	2	3	0	93	96	−3
Miami Dolphins	0	5	0	70	132	−62
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens	4	1	0	146	119	+27
Cleveland Browns	3	2	0	93	112	−19
Pittsburgh Steelers	3	2	0	111	109	+2
Cincinnati Bengals	3	2	0	128	109	+19
AFC South
Jacksonville Jaguars	4	1	0	123	70	+53
Indianapolis Colts	2	3	0	124	138	−14
Houston Texans	1	4	0	110	112	−2
Tennessee Titans	0	5	0	58	109	−51
AFC West
Kansas City Chiefs	4	0	0	118	77	+41
Denver Broncos	3	2	0	97	111	−14
Las Vegas Raiders	3	2	0	132	129	+3
Los Angeles Chargers	0	5	0	84	129	−45

NFC

Team	W	L	T	PF	PA	DIFF
NFC East
New York Giants	3	1	1	109	106	+3
Philadelphia Eagles	2	3	0	92	112	−20
Dallas Cowboys	2	3	0	138	136	+2
Washington Commanders	1	3	1	115	149	−34
NFC North
Minnesota Vikings	5	0	0	109	64	+45
Green Bay Packers	3	2	0	104	112	−8
Chicago Bears	3	2	0	119	96	+23
Detroit Lions	3	2	0	164	148	+16
NFC South
Carolina Panthers	2	2	0	121	109	+12
Atlanta Falcons	2	3	0	119	122	−3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1	4	0	100	112	−12
New Orleans Saints	1	4	0	118	151	−33
NFC West
San Francisco 49ers	5	0	0	154	93	+61
Seattle Seahawks	3	2	0	134	105	+29
Los Angeles Rams	2	3	0	119	120	−1
Arizona Cardinals	1	4	0	108	162	−54

📐 Advanced Metrics

Efficiency over volume — DVOA top 10 via FTN Fantasy, plus what EPA, CPOE and aDOT are saying. Through Week 5.

DVOA

Defense-adjusted Value Over Average — per-play value versus league average, adjusted for opponent and situation (FTN Fantasy). Positive is good. For defense, negative is good. The best single team-efficiency number there is.

EPA

Expected Points Added — how much each play changes a team's expected scoring. EPA per play on offense (and EPA allowed on defense) cuts through garbage-time box scores.

CPOE

Completion Percentage Over Expected — a quarterback's completion rate versus what his throws called for. Separates true accuracy from scheme.

aDOT

Average Depth of Target — how far downfield a quarterback throws. High aDOT plus high CPOE is elite. High aDOT with low CPOE is gunslinger chaos.

DVOA Top 10 — Total

RK	Team	Total	Off (rk)	Def (rk)
1	San Francisco 49ers	52.2%	36.4% (1)	-18.6% (4)
2	Jacksonville Jaguars	30.1%	12.7% (8)	-18.9% (3)
3	Buffalo Bills	24.2%	33.2% (2)	13.8% (27)
4	Kansas City Chiefs	21.9%	18.4% (4)	-2.9% (15)
5	Cincinnati Bengals	21.1%	14.9% (7)	-3.4% (14)
6	Baltimore Ravens	20.6%	20.0% (3)	-2.1% (16)
7	Minnesota Vikings	19.5%	-18.5% (30)	-24.6% (1)
8	Seattle Seahawks	16.4%	-9.9% (22)	-23.2% (2)
9	Carolina Panthers	13.0%	10.7% (9)	2.2% (21)
10	Los Angeles Rams	10.8%	17.4% (6)	-8.8% (7)

DVOA via FTN Fantasy, through Week 5. For defense, negative numbers are better.

What the efficiency numbers are saying

San Francisco is historic. 52.2% total DVOA is the 7th-best five-game start since 1977, driven by a pass offense (70.8% DVOA) that ranks among the ten best starts ever.
Minnesota is the strangest 5-0 team in the data. No. 1 defense (-24.6%) and No. 1 special teams — but 30th offense (-18.5%). The first team since the 1923 Cardinals to open 4-0 without scoring a touchdown in two of the wins.
Buffalo is lopsided. The No. 2 offense (33.2% DVOA) paired with the 27th defense: every game is a shootout.
The 1-4 teams aren't pushovers. Houston (11th, 10.7%) and Tampa Bay (12th, 9.1%) rank among the best 1-4 DVOA teams ever — the models say both are much better than their records.
Cousins lives off play-action. +0.60 EPA per pass on play-action (1st in the NFL) versus +0.01 on pure dropbacks — remarkable with the league's 28th-ranked run game (SumerSports).
Winston is slinging it. 4th-highest aDOT in the league over the last two weeks while sitting 15th in CPOE — pushing it downfield and connecting (Next Gen Stats).