Team of the Week — Week 5
San Francisco 49ers (5–0)
- 32–29 road win at Seattle — beat the defending champions in their own building to stay perfect.
- 5–0 with a league-best +61 point differential (154 scored, 93 allowed).
- Brock Purdy leads the league with 13 passing TDs and sits at a 119.3 rating, No. 2 overall.
🏆 Top 10 — Underground Edge Odds
Our own odds — not one book's board. A blended model: market consensus across five books, adjusted for how teams are actually playing (see "How our odds work" below). Tap AFC / NFC to filter. The % is our model's win chance; these prices carry no vig, so they don't sum to 100%.
| # | Team | Record | Conf. | Our odds | Market → model |
|---|
How our odds work
- Market consensus: average the implied probability (100 ÷ (odds + 100)) for each team across five books — bet365, BetMGM, DraftKings, Caesars, FanDuel — from the Oct 13 board.
- Gameplay adjustment: multiply by a factor = 1 + 0.5 × (win% − 0.60) + 0.02 × (point differential per game), capped at 0.80–1.30 — with small manual haircuts for QB health (Ravens −5% for Jackson's ankle, Bears −3% for the 5-turnover game) and a +5% bump for Detroit's ball security (Goff: 0 INT).
- Convert back: American odds = 100 × (1 − p) ÷ p.
These are independent model prices, not a book's board — they carry no vig and don't sum to 100%. Use them to compare teams and spot value against the books.
Just outside: Cincinnati Bengals +1960 (4.9%) · Detroit Lions +2160 (4.4%) · Denver Broncos +2160 (4.4%). The Philadelphia Eagles fall all the way to +4900 (2.0%) in our model.
Movement vs. the market: Rams — the market favourite at ~+700 consensus, but our model says +790: the market is overpaying for a 2–3 team. Vikings — market ~+2200 consensus, our model +1840: value. Jaguars — DraftKings' +2200 is a big outlier; the other four books say +1100–1200, and our model lands at +940.
Week 6 Games — Model Picks
All 14 games from October 15–19, 2026. On bye: Bengals, Lions, Dolphins and Vikings.
| Game | Kickoff (ET) | Spread | Model pick | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seahawks at Broncos | Thu Oct 15, 8:15pm | DEN +2.5 | Seahawks | 63% |
| Texans at Jaguars (London) | Sun Oct 18, 9:30am | HOU +2.5 | Jaguars | 68% |
| Ravens at Browns | Sun Oct 18, 1:00pm | CLE +4.5 | Ravens | 69% |
| Panthers at Eagles | Sun Oct 18, 1:00pm | CAR -0.5 | Panthers | 56% |
| Bears at Falcons | Sun Oct 18, 1:00pm | CHI -3.5 | Bears | 60% |
| Jets at Patriots | Sun Oct 18, 1:00pm | NE -7.5 | Patriots | 71% |
| Saints at Giants | Sun Oct 18, 1:00pm | NO -1.5 | Giants | 62% |
| Steelers at Buccaneers | Sun Oct 18, 1:00pm | TB +2.5 | Steelers | 55% |
| Titans at Colts | Sun Oct 18, 1:00pm | TEN +6.5 | Colts | 75% |
| Cardinals at Rams | Sun Oct 18, 4:05pm | ARI +12.5 | Rams | 84% |
| Chargers at Chiefs | Sun Oct 18, 4:25pm | KC -8.5 | Chiefs | 87% |
| Bills at Raiders | Sun Oct 18, 4:25pm | BUF -5.5 | Bills | 62% |
| Cowboys at PackersWeek’s coin flip | Sun Oct 18, 8:20pm | GB -1.5 | Packers | 51% |
| Commanders at 49ers | Mon Oct 19, 8:15pm | WAS +7.5 | 49ers | 86% |
Win chance is our model's number: a 50/50 blend of the no-vig win probability implied by the best available moneylines (checked Oct 14) and a results-based rating from each team's point differential through Week 5, with about 2 points of home-field advantage (the London game treated as neutral). Lines move — these were the best prices on Oct 14.
QB watch: Quarterback questions in Baltimore, Chicago and Atlanta could move those lines before kickoff.
🩹 Weekly Injury List — Week 6
The injuries that move odds. Updated Wednesday, Oct. 14, 2026 for the Week 6 slate (Seahawks–Broncos Thursday night, Ravens–Browns, Bears–Falcons, Bucs–Steelers, Cowboys–Packers, Commanders–49ers Monday night).
How to read this board
Odds like +575 mean a $100 bet pays $575 profit. Shorter odds = more likely in the model's eyes. Futures prices move on one thing more than any other: quarterback health. That's why this page pairs the odds with the QB table, the turnover battle, and the injury list every Monday — check all four before you believe any single ranking.